FATT News and Press, Fat Tail Risk ETF From 06/10/21

Consumer price inflation jumped 0.6%MoM in May, after recording 0.8% increases in April and 0.6% in March. Core inflation jumped even more, gaining 0.7%MoM after rising 0.9% in April. The stimulus-fueled economy is booming. However, the pandemic has led to scarring in the economy that...

With input costs rising sharply, the rise in consumer price inflation has only just begun. As shortages and supply chain disruptions are priced through to consumers, goods inflation is set to trend higher. We still believe the impact will be temporary, but in the US less so than i...

The ease lower in market rates continues to pose questions about the extent of the inflation risk ahead; but also reflects liquidity seeking a home. As dovish expectations build ahead of the ECB meeting, more issuers have decided to make use of the benign primary market conditions. ...

If the Federal Reserve’s recent intervention in both the stock and the bond markets is more extreme than Ben Bernanke’s, doesn’t that mean the reaction to any future tapering would be more extreme, too? It sure could be, given the subdued volatility we have seen i...

According to the US Treasury, the federal government owes $28.2 trillion. The debt was just under $25 trillion at the end of April a year ago. Purchasing power is strong, indeed. However, government debt is on an unsustainable trajectory. What if debtors could replace their dollar...

We expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current pace of asset purchases even though the economic restart is gaining momentum. U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth picked up in May. We caution against extrapolating too much from erratic near-term data amid a powerful restart. U...

The latest leading economic data indicate that the recovery is intact and that the strong GDP growth reported for the first quarter of this year will continue. We were looking for the US economy to recover rapidly during the second half of 2020, level off during the first half of 2021...

The VIX has hurtled lower, to just over 15, and at this rate, it will soon be in the low teens. The same is the case for the MOVE index for fixed-income volatility, which is also now clearly driving lower, hitting a 13-month low of 53.4 in May. I suspect vol selling will remain lu...

This has been a run in stocks from the March lows, all while without even really experiencing the usually recession beforehand. That run has been coupled with record revisions of earning forecasts, setting us up for what would seem to be an inevitable fall. However, markets can trend ...

Even as 26.6 million more potential workers arrived, given last year’s deep recession there were in May 2021 only 6.5 million more payrolls than there had been in October 2008. The recovery was said to have been on a winning streak (vaccines, gov’t payments, etc.), so it...