FEEU News and Press, Barclays ETN FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN From 04/21/21

Rates are caught between improving macro conditions, mostly benefitting EUR rates, and greater risk aversion, mostly impacting US rates. The result is large movements but little direction. This morning, interest rates are back where they started the week after significant gyrations in...

While difficult to pinpoint the exact triggers of yesterday's rates sell-off in the eurozone, it did happen against a backdrop of growing optimism and an accelerating vaccine rollout. Even the ECB could acknowledge this during its press conference later this week, although we think th...

The EU has outlined the funding strategy for the Next Generation EU (NGEU). Once ratified by all member states it should start issuing in July. The ECB's PEPP buying will have slowed again by then and the focus could turn to other political factors. US focus today is on retail sal...

A jump in US CPI today is well-flagged, but it should be a wake-up call to what we think will be stickier inflation in the coming months, if not years. This would render the Fed's position increasingly stretched and the policy-sensitive 5Y sector has more room to cheapen. EUR rate...

We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US inflation data and supply offer the most likely drivers for a return to the higher rates trend. F...

FOMC minutes reference the IOER (again); with SOFR stuck at 1bp. We think the Fed should hike it already. The ECB's detailed purchase data for February/March shows little change of strategy beyond the pick-up in purchase volumes of late. Today's ECB minutes might document some con...

Europe's Covid-19 and vaccination trouble may be temporary, but the US recovery is powering ahead. Economic and cash flow divergences are likely to bring wider USD-EUR rates differentials. With the risk of a spike this quarter. For further details see: USD-EUR Rates Dive...

If you think last Friday's US payrolls report was a one-off, think again. Another increase in excess of 1 million is coming for April. The only mystery is why US market rates have not risen by more. We think they will. The 5-year is now cheap to the curve, finally. As the 5-year c...

Once again, the German Constitutional Court is at the root cause of potential market tension. Last Friday, the European flagship project demonstrating solidarity took a severe hit. The decision could be another episode in the long saga of how the German Constitutional Court is (tr...

It appears that bond markets are returning to pricing the economic recovery. Quarter-end flow might still complicate price action, but US data later this week should bring rates back on their upward trend. In Europe, the release of Spanish and German inflation data should provide ...