FIBR News and Press, iShares U.S. Fixed Income Balanced Risk Factor ETF From 04/23/19

Summary and Paper Thesis Although an inverted yield curve led to a recession almost without exception in the last 50 years within a relatively short period of time after the inversion happened, this paper asserts that the inverted yield curve that happened in March and April of 2019 will n...

It is the shadows that really matter . A big enough problem in them would affect pretty much everything, including far off, out-of-the-way places like Federal Funds. Thus, if we observe weird things going on there, we can infer more serious issues back where it does mean something. In 2013 ...

HBO's epic fantasy TV series hit off its final season this past week, reminding viewers that through seven seasons of proclaiming that "Winter is Coming" despite no discernible signs of such change, winter has finally come. And with winter, which in the world of the story is a protracted sea...

For some, like SA contributor Gary Gordon, the Fed is " Fooling Investors For A Third Time; " others, like conservative economist Greg Mankiw, sing the praise of the Fed : The nation’s central bank employs about 20,000 Americans. They monitor the economy, develop analyses to he...

It has been important to pay attention to the bond market over the past two years or so because a lot of what is going on in the investment world is impacting bond yields. In was, in fact, in December 2017 that I first called attention to the role the bond market might play in 2018 ... an...

Can the US Government Just Keep Piling on Debt? The government already owes over $22 trillion, and it's adding over $1 trillion a year. Who is buying it, and why? (12 min). Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...

You read the headlines, "The Markets are going to Hell," and "The Markets will be down 30% by Year-End" and "We are entering a Recession" and all of the rest of the dribble that comes floating along in the Press. Every time I see this stuff my eyes bob up and down and I stare at the ceiling. N...

Welcome to this week's Market Wrap Podcast, I'm Mike Gleason. Coming up the one and only Marc Faber joins me for a tremendous conversation on debt, the global economy and the future of the dollar. Marc tells us how much he believes the average investor should have in gold and silver rig...

(This is an updated and rewritten version of a post I wrote about seven months ago.) I've mentioned the demand for money countless times in the 10-yr history of this blog because it's a very important and under-appreciated macro variable. The Fed controls the supply of money, but the deman...

By Pater Tenebrarum Money Supply Growth Continues to Falter Ostensibly the stock market has rallied because the Fed promised to maintain an easy monetary policy. To be sure, interest rate hikes have been put on hold for the time being and the balance sheet contraction (a.k.a."quantitativ...