FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 04/20/21

Since U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen more than -20% in value, it looks like we might've seen a short-term bottom and an opportunity to profit in the bond market. Which sectors are performing well in the intermediate term, as well as those that are taking a breather in the short term....

While difficult to pinpoint the exact triggers of yesterday's rates sell-off in the eurozone, it did happen against a backdrop of growing optimism and an accelerating vaccine rollout. Even the ECB could acknowledge this during its press conference later this week, although we think th...

Stocks were up but the bigger winners were commodities and real estate. With the dollar down foreign markets also performed pretty well with Europe continuing to outperform. Growth beat value again last week but still lags significantly YTD. Large cap stocks also had another good week...

A US economy littered with super-buoyant readings would typically place upward pressure on market rates. That is clearly not what is happening right now. The question is why? The Fed at zero and bond buying matters, as does signalling from negative real rates. Fixed rate receiving...

The EU has outlined the funding strategy for the Next Generation EU (NGEU). Once ratified by all member states it should start issuing in July. The ECB's PEPP buying will have slowed again by then and the focus could turn to other political factors. US focus today is on retail sal...

The earlier the Fed acknowledges the policy implication of higher inflation, the less damaging will be any ensuing increase in rates. There is a rump of Fed speakers scheduled today, presenting an opportunity to acknowledge this risk. There is less scope for ECB displays of optimi...

The fixed income world is beginning to undergo a multiyear transition as aggressive monetary accommodation and government spending across key economies drive higher near-term economic growth rates. The result could be a shift to higher real rates as output gaps narrow, as well as mode...

The first quarter of 2021 brought what the Asset Allocation Committee expected, and as it looks to the next six to 12 months, it faces two questions. Do we think the economy will overheat, pushing bond yields to levels that unsettle equity markets or even force central banks to stifle...

The biggest positive influence for stocks would be that the Fed increases the amount of money it puts into bonds, which is still unknown. After a torrid March, volume in the options market had fallen off some, resulting in a slower trading pace for stocks early in the week, until Frid...

Last Friday’s huge PPI number looked like it could cause a dramatic response in both bonds and stocks, as it came in at +4.2% (year over year), the largest gain since 2012. Bonds did not sell off violently, probably since some uptick was expected on the economic reopening, and ...