FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 04/05/22

Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. US nonfarm payrolls rose 431,000 in March, extending a run of healthy gains that suggests the economy’s forward momentum remains strong. Economic mom...

Inverted yield curves - especially those driven by rapid shifts in short-term interest rates - tend to be interpreted as evidence of a risk that the Fed is about to hike the economy into recession. The inverted yield curve today is the natural end-result of a long period during which ...

The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 month to 3 years, negatively sloped from 3 years to 10 years, and positively sloped again from 10 out to 30 years. The dollar is still near the top of its long-term range and I don’t see ...

The Treasury curve continued flattening during the first quarter of 2022, with short-term Treasury yields rising precipitously while longer Treasury yields rose at a slower rate. As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable munici...

Late in any economic cycle, investors will turn their attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, a bond-market gauge viewed as a harbinger of the economic outlook. The curve has a track record for foreshadowing recessions when it inverts, meaning when shorter-dated yields move above ...

As the US Treasury curve approaches the point of inversion—where shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term ones—investors are taking notice. Historically, an inverted yield curve has portended a recession and weak financial markets. Given much higher yields and...

The conflict will inevitably drive food prices higher. The European Central Bank announced an acceleration of its tapering program. Commodity markets may look very different than today, with potentially large changes in sources of production, as well as in transportation and refin...

Markets react to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Does an inverted yield curve mean recession risks are rising? China PMI surveys point to contraction in manufacturing and services sectors. For further details see: The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Briefly Inverts. Sh...

It's that time again, where the global financial markets community swoons over the latest US jobs report. It's expected to be strong. But often the market can ignore the number and instead use it as an excuse to latch on to a preferred trend. In that respect, it will be key to see...

So the US curve has inverted, or at least in parts. We'll be a bit picky and assert that a 2/5yr inversion is the better predictor of recession; it has not inverted yet. The 2/5yr segment has not inverted just yet (but it will). The 5/10yr segment has inverted, partly as the 10yr is d...