FTSD News and Press, Franklin Liberty Short Duration U.S. Government From 01/04/23

Summary Strength in indexes such as the ISM Services PMI has been one of the core arguments for those who assert the economy will avoid a second dip into recession. When it comes to the whole economy, the NFIB survey looks like a demand destruction situation. Looking forward in 2023...

Summary More cautious investors may want to wait before celebrating the drop in German inflation, lest they face a rising tide of core inflation. Headwinds to bond performance remain, especially for those denominated in euros. The Fed minutes might not fulfil all of the markets ...

Summary The growth in M2 money supply just went to zero. It has never done that – with the data going back to 1960. It has been below 1% in 1993 and 1995, but never to zero. Basically, the Federal Reserve is choking off the creation of credit in the economy with their actions, wh...

Summary Money supply growth fell again in November, and this time, it turned negative for the first time in 33 years. Since January of 2022, the Fed has raised the target federal funds rate from .25 percent up to 4.0 percent. It should be emphasized that it is not necessary for mone...

Summary The Bank of Japan shocked the market by increasing the band on their Yield Curve Control policy. The policy change was necessary because the BOJ has maintained an accommodative monetary policy despite surging inflation and a weakening yen. The policy change has not had the d...

Summary The 13-week annualized non-seasonally adjusted money supply growth rate is crashing at a time when it typically moves up. The market is becoming increasingly more vulnerable to a major event in the weeks or months ahead. The market is currently experiencing an epic slowdown ...

Summary While price inflation appears to be easing some, the data indicates it is far from whipped. At this point, you can spin the price inflation data either way. It is reasonable to think that price inflation will continue to cool. The bigger problem is that this “high...

Summary Has the BOJ opened a can of worms for global monetary policy? Are central banks amid their huge target misses getting ready to shift their policy targets or monetary approaches? Inflation targeting is a black-box world - when central banks miss their targets, do those target...

Summary Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting provided reinforcement for those anticipating slower rate hikes and a more stable bond market next year. Chair Jerome Powell seems to lean toward downshifting to 25-basis-point increases. Investors could see slower rate hikes from h...

Summary Inflation and central bank policy will likely continue being key focus points for investors. 2023 may not see a repeat of the frantic Federal Reserve activity that characterized 2022, but policy rates almost certainly still have further to rise. While 2023, with its challeng...