GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/10/22

The seasonally adjusted teen employment data isn't squaring up with the reported increase in payroll employment. Younger teens (age 16-17) are continuing to see their numbers among the employed fall from their recent peak in April 2022, while older teens (age 18-19) saw their numbers ...

Indicators used to date beginning and end of recessions mostly show no decline. July data points to a rebounding economy. Corporations act like there is a no recession. The yield curve that indicated recent economic weakness now points to renewed expansion. Yield curve ind...

Small businesses sentiment remains near some of the worst levels of the past decade. The latest release did come in both better than expectations and slightly higher than last month. The Optimism Index climbed from 89.5 in June to 89.9. In spite of the modest bounce in the headlin...

Global consumer confidence has collapsed in the last year. Consumer confidence has never fallen this hard with business confidence following. Deteriorating confidence is in alignment with leading indicators pointing towards a weaker growth outlook. Global Economic Confiden...

With so much negativity baked in, it may have been inevitable that markets would rebound. The strong U.S. jobs numbers highlight the challenges in reading the economy. As the Fed hikes rates, it's not just slowing the economy, it's building back its credibility. ...

Upstart lowers investors' expectations, yet again. Upstart has now seen its stock fully washed out. Indeed, very few investors considering Upstart stock afresh are likely to want to get involved with Upstart, particularly as its guidance points to negative revenue growth rates. He...

July was the highest revenue generating month of 2022. The US hard to borrow equity market pushes revenues higher. Fixed income continues to see strong demand. Corporate bonds are in for an impressive 2022. Global securities finance revenues totalled $1.215 bln, ...

The fiscal policies implemented post the pandemic-driven economic shutdown created a surge in demand that created an unprecedented surge in corporate earnings. When stocks deviate from the underlying economy, the eventual resolution is lower stock prices. The deviation from long-t...

After a full year of underperforming a counterfactual based upon the "Great Recession" trade recovery, the post-pandemic trade recovery between the U.S. and China has finally caught up to that projection in terms of current, or nominal, U.S. dollars. Digging into the trade data, we fo...

There are now 20 million more 55+ employed than there were in 2000. The 55+ population increased by 42 million (from 57 million in 2000 to 99 million today), a 74% increase. Total employment in the age cohort increased by 113%. This reflects structural changes in the U.S. economy:...