GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/09/22

There are now 20 million more 55+ employed than there were in 2000. The 55+ population increased by 42 million (from 57 million in 2000 to 99 million today), a 74% increase. Total employment in the age cohort increased by 113%. This reflects structural changes in the U.S. economy:...

After Friday’s big payroll number, stocks sank as the buzz was that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting. And they well might. One of the amazing developments of the Covid pandemic was that many people who were forced to stay...

We highlighted the 15% convertible bonds as a safe way to play Upstart for those that well bullish. Upstart Q2-2022 results were what everyone was watching for, and we went through those as well. It is hard to emphasize how bad these Upstart results are, but we will try. ...

It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...

Second Quarter GDP recently contracted by 0.9%. Combined with the contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter, the economy is now in what historically has been deemed a recession. The administration and most of the media have pushed back on this narrative, sighting yet another strong mon...

Compounding interpretation of the data now is the issue of the pandemic and the consequences of an ill-advised global economic shutdown. Some economists contend two quarters of negative GDP alone is not a sufficient indication of a recession. Certainly, some market sectors and ind...

Persistently elevated rates of price increases and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle are impacting economic activity. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers have shown greater resilience. Initial claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison, but a clear u...

We prefer investment grade credit over equities right now. Our reasoning: valuations, strong balance sheets, low supply and moderate refinancing risks. U.S. data last week showed strong job creation but still low labor participation. Stocks lost steam and bond yields spiked as markets...

Elevated inflation, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain the key economic considerations. The policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe is likely to increase amid heightened recession risk in Europe. We expect mar...

Some very reputable economists and market strategists are convinced the bear market will continue. I think they are underestimating the strength of the economic and market fundamentals. The distortions to this economic cycle brought on by multiple factors have made this a very aty...