GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/13/22

The recently passed "Tax and Spend" bill has all but ensured elevated inflation levels. Employment is strong? Think again. The "Jobs" picture may not be as strong as reported. We've seen the first snapshot of whether "Peak Inflation" is in the rearview mirror. This earnings se...

The combination of a less-than-feared interest rate hike and two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth sparked a strong rally in US equities and other risk assets. Indeed, as July gave way to August, a surprisingly strong jobs report and lower-than-expected CPI numbers made...

Prior to revisions, last week’s reading on jobless claims rose back up to 260K which was only 1K below the post-pandemic high from two weeks prior. This time of the year is usually when initial claims tend to head lower from a seasonal perspective, however, in the current week ...

The preliminary August results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment ticked up in early August but remains near record lows. The current economic conditions index fell to 55.5 versus 58.1 in July. The one-year inflation expectations f...

When stocks deviate from the underlying economy, the eventual resolution is lower stock prices. While not precise, there is a correlation between economic activity and the rise and fall of equity prices. While the stock market is detached from reality, looking at past earnings con...

The latest AAII reading on the percentage of investors that are bullish on the S&P 500 over the next six months came in at 32.2%, the highest level since March. Bearish sentiment dropped to 36.7%, also the lowest reading since the end of March. Other sentiment surveys have bee...

Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 14,000 for the week ending August 6th, coming in at 262,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.451 million for the week ending July 23rd, a rise of 10,067 from the prior week. While t...

Latest CPI might help sentiment, but inflation is still a problem. Why shelter inflation is creating a more complicated fight for the Fed. Softer CPI could mean the Fed avoids another jumbo rate hike, but rates are still going up. U.S. inflation data for July...

The entire notion that there is a hard and fast line indicating "recession" is not realistic or useful. The more useful approach is to look at data points as mostly signal noise that fail to reflect or illuminate the core dynamics of the economy. If we're not measuring or ponderin...

The CPI number backed off a tad in July to 8.5%, from 9.1% in June, as food prices continued to spike but gasoline and natural gas prices fell sharply and prices of durable goods backed off their crazy spike. Services inflation rose to 6.25%, the highest since 1982. The CPI for servic...