GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/16/22

Economic slowdown but no recession! That message comes from the latest employment report, service sector data, and Federal Reserve. While James Bullard and others currently directing the monetary policy regime suggest they can quell inflation with only an economic slowdown, history su...

After plunging more than 22% from the start of the year through mid-June, U.S. equities in July had their biggest rally since November 2020 amid earnings reports that were generally stronger than forecasted. Several major factors drove the sell-off in equities to start the year. C...

The latest headline number of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends for July came in at 89.9, up 0.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 8th percentile in this series. The uncertainty in the small business sector is climbing again as owners continue to manage historic infla...

The US has seen a rebound in manufacturing and industrial output, coupled with a decent performance from the consumer sector and net trade and inventories being less of a drag. These factors put together support our view of 3%+ GDP growth in 3Q. However, the housing market, a weak...

Stocks have seen an unabated rally in August. But there are two big events on Wednesday that could change all of that. The VIX option expiration and Fed minutes could provide crucial turning points. Stocks aren't the only things that have risen recently. Yields and the d...

The rapid ascent in stock prices over the past month has us in an extremely overbought condition. This can work against the Fed's goal of tempering demand and result in more aggressive monetary policy actions. I see a peak in short-term rates at 3%, but if the bond market intimate...

Long-term investors need to have a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens, a strategy that keeps them on an even keel. Investing is hard and determining your risk tolerance is far from an exact science. There are a lot of people these days who seem to want the market ...

We see company earnings deteriorating amid a rotation in consumer spending and a sputtering restart. This is partly why we remain cautious on stocks. Stocks jumped on hopes of the Fed pausing hikes soon as inflation edges lower. We think that’s premature and see inflation settl...

Paradoxically, the prediction business can be very profitable for some - and not because their predictions are correct. Being out at the wrong time - it's hard to get back in. Observations on beating the market. Since the June 16 bottom, we've enjoyed a really nice mov...

A lower-than-expected rate of inflation ignites animal spirits. The S&P 500 has retraced 50% of its bear-market decline. It does not look like the June low will be retested, giving birth to a new bull market. Last week I asserted that this bear-market bounce in the s...