GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/20/22

There's a danger to have a central banker centric view of the universe, where everything that happens on inflation is because of central bankers. It's critically important to figure out how much of this inflation is from supply shocks and how much is from excess demand and stimulus, m...

The yield curve is inverted from the 6-month T-bill to the 10-year Treasury note, which would suggest that the bond market’s message is “recession ahead, batten down the hatches”. Relatively tight risk spreads suggest that nobody is thinking too seriously about th...

What are the odds of a recession? What are the risks that inflation will stay elevated? How are housing markets evolving in a rising rate environment? From the risk of a recession, to the stickiness of inflation, to the prospects for the housing market, TD Econom...

The U.S., along with the U.K., the eurozone countries, and many other nations around the world, are in a deep inflation hole. In the U.S., headline inflation is running at more than 8% on a year-over-year basis, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is running in the 6% ter...

Assessing the main issues behind recent market performance. What to expect at the Jackson Hole symposium. Economic growth slows in China. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Client Investment Strategies, Mark Eibel, and Sophie Antal-Gilbert, Head ...

Jackson Hole has been heavily discussed since the Fed’s supposed “dovish pivot” last month when it adopted a more data-dependent stance. While policymakers have pushed back against the idea of a pivot, markets have continued to price in a slower path of tightening...

Since the stocks touched lows in mid-July, the S&P 500 index is up by as much as 17%. Notably, this is an annualized performance of more than 200%! The current macro-economic environment paired with the market’s high valuation implies one of the most unfavourable risk/rewar...

Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months thanks to reduced supply-chain frictions and the commodity market coming off the boil. Slower input cost inflation reflected an easing of pressures among both manufacturers and service providers. With staff shortages continuing gl...

Bullish sentiment continued its recent run of increases according to the weekly AAII individual investor sentiment survey. Hitting 33.3% this week, bulls are at the highest level since the last week of 2021. That 2022 is nearly 2/3 complete and we still haven’t seen a bulli...

Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell 2,000 for the week ending August 13th, coming in at 250,000. The large downward revision for the prior week’s data combined with the latest week indicates that the recent sustained upward trend may be flattening. ...