GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 07/02/22

The JPMorgan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, nudged lower in June, down from 52.3 in May to 52.2, its lowest since August 2020. The global manufacturing PMI survey's Output Index, which acts as a reliable advance indicator of actual worldwide outp...

Analysts are still forecasting 2022 earnings to grow by more than 10 percent, higher today than their consensus estimates back in March. Already we are getting a preview of how the second quarter earnings season, which officially gets underway late next week, is going to shape up in t...

Risk capital is the portion of capital that is invested in the riskiest segments of each market and safety capital is that portion that finds its way to the safest segments in each market. It is a common misconception that the risk-takers supply risk capital and that the investors who...

The stock market has been a winning team for years, generating outsized returns for investors. But so far this year, the winning streak appears to be coming to an end. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, has been a very effective clean-up hitter for the stock market, not only leading the st...

Markets see-saw on inflation reports, economic data releases. Three reasons why Q2 earnings season could be challenging. June employment report, CPI reading loom large for U.S. markets. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Client Investment Strateg...

A shortened trading week on Wall Street will have traders focusing on the FOMC minutes, a few Fed speakers, and the June nonfarm payroll report. I don’t think there’s any such thing as a quiet week for Europe at the moment but next week is probably as close as it gets. ...

We have upgraded inflation forecasts - and downgraded growth - and now expect global GDP to expand at a rate well below potential in 2023. Regardless of whether the economic slowdown meets the technical definition of a recession, the next few quarters aren’t going to feel good....

A broad range of data suggests recession risks in the U.S. are mounting. Stocks currently remain under selling pressure due to a variety of issues causing a repricing of valuations. Investing during a recession can be dangerous, particularly when elevated valuations are present ac...

The U.S. is about to record two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Consumer sentiment and small business outlook are extremely poor. The retail bullwhip effect is going to put further pressure on GDP growth. Markets are in a very precarious position until the Fe...

I am still forecasting a continuation of the current expansion. Yet I will gladly eat crow to realize a recession during the first half of the year. That will improve the chances for a market recovery in the second half of the year, which is a more important call for me than the e...