GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 07/29/22

Special purpose acquisition vehicles were relatively unused until the firehose of pandemic liquidity spurred Wall Street capital markets teams into action, forming hundreds of companies to raise billions of dollars of equity in these so-called blank-check offerings. There are still ov...

Markets are giddy about a looming recession and a potential Fed pivot. The Fed sees rates rising to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The market sees rate cuts starting in March. The FOMC meeting wasn't as dovish as the market wants to make it seem. The Fed raised rates by anothe...

Rather than making money harder to get, the U.S. government needs to focus on the other side of the demand vs. supply equation. The Fed’s prescription is to suppress demand (borrowing and spending) by raising interest rates. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve tackled inflat...

I doubt the NBER will conclude we are in a recession, given the consistent strength in consumer spending and the labor market. The negative print in the second quarter was due to inventory adjustments from last year's build. If we avoid a recession, as I have asserted, history sug...

Today’s GDP reading officially shows two quarters of negative GDP. A lot of this talk about recessions ignores the fact that housing is a big slow moving sector. The Fed appears to be pivoting towards a more dovish stance and that’s part of why stocks have been bounc...

Initial jobless claims have started to rise with the monthly average in July around 40% higher than the average in March. Three regional Fed PMIs (Philadelphia, Texas, and New York) are seeing declines in the Future Employment component of the survey. Job openings fell by -600,000...

After reaching the highest level in over a month last week, bullish sentiment fell back down to 27.7%. At 40%, bearish sentiment is at the lowest level since the first week of June, with this week being the third sequential decline in a row. Neutral sentiment has risen to 32.2%, t...

Initial jobless claims continue to disappoint. Although this week’s release technically fell down to 256K, it was from a 10K upwardly revised number of 261K last week. The pandemic was a volatile time period for jobless claims data as readings rose into the millions. July t...

While this is a technical recession, the Fed is correct to say we aren't in a "real" recession yet since unemployment is still falling and consumers are still spending. Consumers remain under real pressure as inflation puts the squeeze on spending power while the plunge in equity mark...

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at -0.9%, an increase from -1.6% for the Q1 Third Estimate. A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.29%. Eleven of twelv...