GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/08/22

Some very reputable economists and market strategists are convinced the bear market will continue. I think they are underestimating the strength of the economic and market fundamentals. The distortions to this economic cycle brought on by multiple factors have made this a very aty...

Two economic reports from last week, attempting to measure essentially the same thing, reported results that were so different they could be about two different countries. The rising rate, rising dollar environment is intact. The 10 year Treasury rate is in a short-term downtrend but ...

Raising the Federal Funds Rate in combination with a shrinking M2 money supply will keep inflation under control. The yield curve of 10-year government bonds minus the 3-month yield curve will invert and a recession is imminent. On the short term: the stock market will crash, and ...

Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively. The release of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers late last month set off a debate around the state of the U.S. economy and whether it is curre...

The market is ignoring the looming impact the recession and receding inflation will have on corporate earnings. We are back in positive gamma. Positive gamma in the options market brings less-volatile markets which tend to trend upwards. The bulls have the ball for now, but they a...

The market (SPX) leads changes in GDP by at least 1 quarter. In fact, the SPX impacts GDP, instead of other way around - transmission is via looser Financial Conditions. The latest Nonfarm Payroll data (June 2022) should loosen Financial Conditions even further. It doesn't matter ...

If inflation is cooling, the Fed has no reason to raise rates until the economy collapses. Since the vast majority of commodity prices having fallen significantly from their recent highs, a much smaller number of manufacturers now are reporting paying higher prices. Today, junk bo...

After months of battering, global equity markets enjoyed a reprieve in July, lifted by hopes that worsening economic signals and falling commodity prices might give central banks, led by the Fed, some leeway to dial back their tightening campaigns. Despite their recent outperformance,...

As US dollar strength continued and inflation expectations softened, the gold price fell, gold ETFs lost 81t (US$4.5bn), and speculative positions in gold futures turned net short for only the fifth time since 2006. The market reaction to the July Fed meeting may encourage a more sust...

Growing rapidly, multi-faceted, and with green products and services permeating throughout markets, the green economy’s development increasingly resembles that of the tech sector. The green economy is now the equivalent of the fifth largest industrial sector by market value &#x...