GSY News and Press, Invesco Ultra Short Duration From 05/27/24

2024-05-27 14:05:00 ET Summary The Q2 ’24 Atlanta GDP Nowcast is projecting mid 3% GDP for the 2nd quarter, 2024. Friday morning, we get Core PCE data for April ’24, and overall April PCE data is expected at +0.2%, while the April Core PCE data is expected at +0.3%. ...

2024-05-27 04:22:00 ET Summary The US economic upturn accelerated again in May after two months of slower growth, with the early PMI data signaling the fastest expansion for just over two years. US business activity growth accelerated sharply to its fastest for just over two years...

2024-05-27 03:32:00 ET Summary Today’s unemployment and inflation environment is a far cry from what it was in the 1980s' stagflationary years. Median stock market volatility in year four of an election cycle is essentially the same as it is in years one and three. Chin...

2024-05-24 09:45:00 ET Summary It is widely known that markets can be influenced by economic data releases that deviate significantly from consensus. We have quantified the impact of economic surprises on the US government bond market for different tenors, as measured by the quint...

2024-05-24 00:05:00 ET Summary The current focus of the FOMC is on achieving the inflation mandate rather than the employment mandate. The FOMC is more concerned about the risk of inflation than the state of the labor market. Unemployment remains low and is not a major concern...

2024-05-23 00:20:00 ET Summary Two driving forces are now simultaneously pushing in the direction of higher long-term real interest rates. While investors and commentators often tend to conflate the two, I think it is useful instead to distinguish them clearly. They are rising inv...

2024-05-22 13:30:00 ET Summary Fed policy has a heightened data dependency, leading to increased volatility in the bond market. The UST market’s narrative has shifted toward the possibility of rate cuts, but the Fed does not appear to be in a rush to implement them based on...

2024-05-21 11:30:00 ET Summary When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. The curve has been inverted since July 2022, the longest inversion on record, but a recession has...

2024-05-21 03:15:00 ET Summary Bonds and stocks rallied last week on the back of two pretty good inflation reports, I suppose. Current inflation expectations are consistent with expectations prior to and just after the 2008 financial crisis. While inflation expectations didn&#...

2024-05-20 14:15:00 ET Summary We stay dynamic on a strategic horizon to take advantage of sharp valuation shifts. We go overweight emerging market stocks for the first time since 2020. U.S. stocks hit all-time highs while 10-year yields fell after the CPI data met expectations. W...