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2023-06-09 15:10:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve is expected to leave policy rates unchanged on 14 June, despite recent market pricing shifts. Conflicting data and mixed messages in recent data releases suggest it may be prudent for the Fed to pause and evaluate. If rates ar...
2023-06-09 03:30:00 ET Summary This week’s price action has been largely contained when you look across the major FX pairs, gold, and indices, although some big moves have been observed in some emerging market currencies (not least the Turkish lira). Among the majors, the A...
2023-06-09 00:26:00 ET Summary US labor market shows signs of deterioration beneath the surface, with a divergence between the establishment and household surveys in the jobs report. Consumption may face headwinds from higher earners losing jobs, tightening lending standards, and ...
2023-06-08 15:50:00 ET Summary US macro data suggests rates should be around 6%, supporting the Fed's current position above 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield remains low, suggesting residual upward pressure on market rates. Despite some factors pointing to lower rates, further u...
2023-06-08 05:30:00 ET Summary Inflation in the United States continues to cool, falling in April 2023 to its lowest level in two years. The long period of sustained low inflation was enabled by globalization, the Internet age, and demographics. U.S. economy is absorbing and r...
2023-06-07 08:30:00 ET Summary The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt. With the era of volatility-supp...
2023-06-06 18:30:00 ET Summary Why employment data is helping to push back the recession scenario. Strong jobs market means rates may not be coming down anytime soon. Why interest rate cuts may not happen until 2024 now. The latest U.S. jobs data showed emplo...
2023-06-06 09:59:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 reached a new high for 2023, driven mainly by tech mega-caps. A broader rally could continue if economic data remains mixed and the Fed pauses rate hikes. Technical indicators suggest a potential 9% surge in the stock market if a ...
2023-06-06 05:38:00 ET Summary The US economy faces concerns such as Fed tightening, high inflation, tighter bank lending standards, and leading indicators pointing to a potential downturn. The job market remains solid, but some worsening data suggests that its strength may have p...
2023-06-06 04:39:00 ET Summary The Fed may not raise rates in July, as inflation is expected to continue to decline. Housing prices have been falling for the past 18 months, which will lead to negative Owner's Equivalent Rent component of the CPI in the coming months. The econ...