HYLD News and Press, High Yield From 02/02/23

Summary Investor obsession with peaks—peak inflation, peak hawkishness, peak bearishness—has shifted to pivots, in particular, a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot away from its aggressive rate hikes over the last year. Financial markets seem to be placing a higher proba...

Summary The JNK ETF did not make another leg higher when the S&P attacked the 4100 level last week, which in my book is an indication that the stock market is a little ahead of itself. As we come up to the FOMC meeting tomorrow, the Fed needs to be reminded that the bigger part of t...

Summary If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. If the question is why interest rates rose a lot in 2022, and if your answer to that question is the Fed, you have, in my view, lost the scrip...

Summary Investing can seem like an endless cycle of booms and busts. The correlations among European, Japanese, and emerging market equities as well as US high-yield bonds increased consistently since 1989. According to monthly return data, the average S&P 500 correlations to th...

Summary When the height of the entire Yield Curve is the 6-month Treasury Bill, you know that you are living in some very strange place. There are those that suggest that some kind of “pivot,” by the Fed is on the horizon. I am not in this camp, and do not expect to see th...

Summary 2022 has been a volatile year for credit markets, but a closer inspection highlights some striking differences. Yields on EM HY reached much higher levels (close to 14% at its peak), and spiked much faster, than their Euro and US equivalents, which peaked at around 9% in Q4 2022...

Summary Can the bond market rally last? What the rally in bonds means for the 60/40 portfolio. End of the rate hike cycle in sight? The bond market has started 2023 on a much stronger footing than it was on for much of last year. Greg Bonnell speaks with Scott Colb...

Summary The two key risks of fixed income are interest-rate risk and credit risk. Duration and high yield are often negatively correlated. We like the secured nature of securitized bonds. By Matthew Sheridan, CFA Transcript When we think about gener...

Summary While 2022 was one of the toughest years ever for markets, the final quarter provided some relief. Major central banks, including the Fed, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, continue to wrestle with stubbornly high inflation rates. There's much disagreement about wh...

Summary China’s reopening, lower energy prices and cooling inflation reinforce our long-term positive view on equities. Yet, we think market optimism has come too soon. Stocks paused their rally and bond yields steadied after recession worries returned. We think we are starting t...