HYLD News and Press, High Yield From 03/07/23

2023-03-07 12:10:00 ET Summary Over the past 30 years, there have been three recessionary periods during which high-yield spreads rose by an average of 630 bps. Lofty yield levels in the HY market have provided investors with a cushion to absorb potential losses from deteriorating...

Summary The credit cycle lies at the heart of our financial system. Corporations and households rely on the availability of credit to facilitate economic growth and ensure financial stability. Unfortunately, the leading indicators suggest the cyclical outlook of the credit cycle is unfa...

Summary Two key risks could challenge recent market optimism: weaker consumption and a squeeze on corporate profitability. Despite these elevated risks, current credit spreads are not reflective of recessionary risks when compared with historical levels. The opportunity set for inco...

Summary Why the U.S. economy continues to display polyurethane-like flexibility and resilience, despite encountering extraordinary shocks. How portfolios can also be built with flexibility and resilience in mind. Why high-quality fixed income assets are today a critical component of...

Summary One of the phrases making the rounds among the financial media chatterboxes this week has been “no landing”. The macro news has indeed given some cause for cheer relative to some of the more dour scenarios we’ve been looking at in the past few months. Wh...

Summary Following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) series of aggressive interest-rate hikes, inflationary pressures have shown signs of easing. We believe this may pave the way for a “pivot to a pause” in monetary policy. The impact of tightening financial co...

Summary America and the world keep dodging recessions, like they did last year. The IMF just raised its 2023 global growth rate projection to 2.9% (from 2.7% last October), and they raised their U.S. GDP projection from +1.0% to +1.4% now. A 1.4% growth rate is not very exciting, but it...

Summary Changes in the bond market reflect changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and overall economic conditions, all of which have a significant impact on the stock market. This week, we saw a bit of a dislocation in the bond/stock market relationship. Corporate bonds and ...

Summary Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large, and middle-market firms. Large corporate bankruptcies have spiked the most since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock valuations typically tumble during recessions as the unemp...

Summary Investor obsession with peaks—peak inflation, peak hawkishness, peak bearishness—has shifted to pivots, in particular, a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot away from its aggressive rate hikes over the last year. Financial markets seem to be placing a higher proba...