ISMD News and Press, Inspire Small/Mid Cap Impact From 10/04/22

Summary Geopolitical tensions, elevated market volatility, and the fastest pace of central bank tightening in decades are contributing to an unusually uncertain economic environment. In addition to higher income potential, yields are high enough to provide the potential for capita...

Summary The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the total number of job openings in the economy dropped to 10.053 million in August, down from 11.170 million in July. The industries with the highest openings are education and heal...

Summary Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in August 2022 is $78,075. The first half of 2022 saw median household income decline in real terms, coinciding with a technical recession for the U.S. economy. President Biden's inflation has been les...

Summary The Fed’s goal is to inflict quick, near-term pain on the economy in exchange for long-term price stability and future economic gains. When it comes to inflation, the good news is that it appears to be peaking, and many economists see the declining inflation trend c...

Summary The Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term rates in their battle to slow inflation in the third quarter. The end of the quarter saw Hurricane Ian deal a lethal blow to southwest Florida. The economic impact is severe and portends a big downshift in the economy o...

Summary Last week, the 2-year Treasury rate rose above 4.3%, the 10-year Treasury rose above 3.9%, and mortgage rates topped 7%, their highest level in 20 years. By reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month, the Fed has sent the 10-year rate substantially higher. The...

Summary Elevated inflation, currencies, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain key economic considerations. Volatility measured by the VIX spiked in September after declining in August. This wall of worry is real, but it is impor...

Summary Everywhere today, conversations are being had about what is happening in asset markets and the economy. Many people are in varying degrees of concern, alarm, and distress. Few are yet in a panic. History assures us that they will be. The average portfolio allocation re...

Summary Asian markets continue to struggle this year, thanks in large part to the weak China market. The only asset class showing positive performance is volatility. It has been a bumpy ride down this year, with six failed rally attempts. We are now 25.3% below the high water mark...

Summary The new regime poses an unavoidable trade-off for central banks: tame inflation by hiking or preserve growth. We see them overtightening rates, so keep risk low. UK gilt yields reached 14-year highs before the Bank of England intervened to halt the selloff. Yields on 10-ye...