ISMD News and Press, Inspire Small/Mid Cap Impact From 10/10/22

Summary Macro policy is ripping through markets now. We step back and look at why real assets in private markets like infrastructure could be attractive long term. Stocks fell after U.S. payroll gains slowed but not enough to deter the Fed from its singular focus on inflation, wit...

Summary The currently global “stagflation” experience may evolve toward one of a “soft landing”, a “sharp downturn”, or a “deep recession”. It will all depend on how fast inflation will respond downward to economic decelerati...

Summary The last 40 years of financial markets had vastly different underlying macroeconomic circumstances. The Federal Reserve will tighten until the market breaks. Consumer Price Inflation has structural tailwinds and is likely to reemerge after a pivot, even if inflation de...

Summary Over the last two weeks Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. The big problem with the Fed’s plan to kill inflation by reducing economic growth and raising the unemployment rate is that t...

Summary Many do not view a very long-term bear market as a possibility. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that an upcoming bear market can last between 7 and 20 years. The nature of the structure we develop in the coming decade will outline how long the upcoming bear market can l...

Summary The last decade, from a historical perspective, looks like an anomaly. If volatility becomes more common in the future, strategies that help reduce downside risk should become integral to equity allocations. Expect to see more volatility in the next 10 years than in th...

Summary The bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October. However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom. Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates. The bear market of 2022 still has further to run b...

Summary Few sectors escaped this year’s global equity selloff in Q3. Those most vulnerable to the punishing effects of the recent spike in interest rates have paid an especially heavy toll. Real estate, telecom, utilities and tech were the worst performers in most marke...

Summary The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.2% increase on the month. This will replace the 0.4% increase in September last year and allow the year-over-year rate to fall toward 8.1% from 8.3%. Encouraged by the Fed's economic projections and a view of the Fed's r...

Summary What lessons can we learn from this postwar history of recessions? Recessions in the modern era are not just the product of natural economic cycles, but also of the latent systemic pressures that exist in a highly interlinked and mutually dependent global capital market. ...