ITE News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury From 08/17/19

Core inflation has recovered a bit in the last two months, but we remain in the context of relatively low non-shelter inflation and high shelter inflation, averaging out to roughly on-target total core inflation. I will probably continue to do these updates for a while, but I suspect the con...

As far as recent times may be concerned, June 2019 wasn't that bad of a month. Compared to some this year, it was downright uninteresting. Starting with the UST market, there was a plunge in yields (bad sign for global dollar shortage) in the second half of April and throughout May. June saw m...

There are now more than $13 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds in the global market. Just the idea of it runs counter to logic, and yet, the amount continues to grow. Two questions that we get often from investors are, "How did we get here?" and "Could it happen in the United State...

Alright, nerds. It's time to put on our thinking caps and fill up our pocket protectors. We're gonna talk about inverted yield curves. First things first - What is an inverted yield curve? An inverted yield curve is a description of the comparison between 10-year Treasury note yields and...

One of the crowd's favorite yield curve pairings (the spread on 10-year less 3-month Treasuries) has been signaling elevated US recession risk since May. As of yesterday (Aug. 14), the 10-year/2-year spread has gone over to the dark side too. That alone doesn't insure that economic output wi...

Here is the latest hint about how the wealthy take advantage of government-created economic and financial situations: "How Hedge Funds Are Thriving n a World of Negative-Yielding Debt .” Laurence Fletcher writes in the Financial Times, The growing pool of negative-yielding debt ma...

By Sonal Desai, Ph.D. Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The inversion of the Treasury yield curve has recently gotten a lot of attention in the financial press as being a harbinger of economic malaise ahead. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desa...

"Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning" You have to be kidding me! This headline from CNBC greeted me this morning and appears to give us a significant reason for the Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq indices suffering a sharp decline today. It is just one more instance o...

U.S. core Consumer Price Index ((CPI)) inflation was firmer than expected in July, increasing 0.3% month-over-month, similar to June's gain, and the year-over-year rate ticked up to 2.2%. We have been flagging the risk that businesses could pass on the higher costs associated with import tari...

The mold has been broken. It took place this morning, as the 30 year Treasury hits a 2.06%, as I am writing my commentary. This is the lowest yield for this security going back decades and decades. It is astounding, really, as the central banks of the world have changed course, with $15.9 tril...