IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 03/16/21

The inflation number has not gotten out of range, despite the breathtaking increase in the monetary base. The mainstream includes all causes of rising prices in their definition of inflation. We differentiate nonmonetary forces pushing up prices from the monetary forces pushing them d...

Jerome Powell has suggested that the Federal Reserve's position will remain resolutely supportive for growth. He will have a tough task convincing markets that inflation risks can be overlooked and rate hikes remain years away. The June FOMC is when the fireworks happen. For...

One of the interesting things during the period when Treasury yields were rising was that all of the risk assets were compressing against Treasuries. There is virtually no spread in any of the credit indexes that pays the buyer for the credit risk. The spreads are just off historic lo...

"Runaway inflation or continued deflation?" "Rising rates or rates dropping below the zero bound?" These are just some of the questions investors are starting to ponder as the economy re-opens. The current interest rate environment is particularly complex because there are so many com...

Inflation has been gradually rising since 2Q20, but there will be a step change in March and April with the economy in a very different position to what it was 12 months before. Headline US inflation has risen from 0.2% year-on-year last May to 1.7% today, but it is barely halfway to ...

It should be no surprise that profit-maximizing speculators will seek the best risk-adjusted returns wherever and whenever they might perceive them. While the securities lending side of the financial world can be and most often is pliable, fungible, and, at times, horrifically forgivi...

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck's latest investment outlook explores the recent bitcoin rally and the underlying trends supporting it. He discusses what economic growth looks like in 2021 after the worst year for the economy since World War II. He also discusses the impact of higher intere...

Amid ongoing debates about fiscal and monetary policy in February, global sovereign debt markets experienced a widespread sell-off for the second consecutive month. In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield climbed 11 basis points to finish at 0.16%, its highest closing point since ...

The 5-year TIPS breakeven rate has surged to equal its highest in a very long time. The congruence and consistency make more sense in light of what's really been driving crude since late last year. The economy is still improving but way too slowly and certainly not in some out-of-...

The money flowing from the central banks and governments has created the so-called "pent-up demand" and predictions of 5% or more GDP growth next year. But capacity utilization is down even while trillions of new dollars pour into the system. Inflation expectations are continuing to g...