IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 06/07/21

This has been a run in stocks from the March lows, all while without even really experiencing the usually recession beforehand. That run has been coupled with record revisions of earning forecasts, setting us up for what would seem to be an inevitable fall. However, markets can trend ...

On one hand, prices that are falling too quickly have the potential to hurt purchasing power by raising the real value and servicing cost of liabilities. On the other, prices that are rising too quickly can hurt purchasing power by reducing the real value of income. Growing demand or ...

Economists are already debating whether, or to what degree, stimulus spending is fueling inflation, with consumer prices rising by a whopping 4.2% in April. Prices of lumber, steel and semiconductors are also at record highs, given historically low inventories and surging demand. Port congest...

The Fed has not changed its messaging since the pandemic hit. But the GDP is at 10%, and inflation's latest data annualized is also at 10%. Uh, you think it's time for a change? The repo market may force the Fed's hand. The Fed has lost control with the huge demand to borrow from ...

Those who went along with the Fed’s inflation-is-temporary-and-going-per-plan narrative are stunned by the data they now see coming in. The inflation data surprises index reveals whether inflationary data is higher or lower than economists expected. It’s hard to claim th...

The market focus is on the restart and inflation - and less on geopolitical risks - yet, it’s worth watching specific risks, as flareups could catch investors off guard. Inflation expectations eased on lower oil and commodity prices. We expect volatile near-term data amid pent-...

Federal reserve minutes and recent comments suggest inflation could rise to 3%. Apart from consumer-led inflation, there is further room for producer prices and commodity prices rise. Inflation expectations are still underpriced, and the US Treasury/TIPS spread implies future infl...

Monetary policy institutions may be straining their credibility, which increases the likelihood of political encroachment and threatens our hard-earned victory over volatile consumer prices. The second way central banks may be risking credibility could be a still bigger threat to thei...

The Fed can't taper Quantitative Easing (QE) without really hurting the market. Tapering of QE will signal a shift by the Fed to tighter monetary policy. Tapering will signal the end an era of Fed ease and the onset of higher inflation and interest rates, the market’s event...

Bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week’s rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin fell over 53%. Is that the end of the sell-off? Doubts about the post-virus bo...