IVW News and Press, iShares S&P 500 Growth From 01/22/24

2024-01-22 15:40:00 ET Summary The General Business Conditions index fell to -43.7, a depth only exceeded by the -78.2 reading in April of 2020 with the economy shut down for COVID. New orders (-49.4 vs -11.3) and shipments (-31.3 vs -6.4) also posted sharp declines and unfilled o...

2024-01-22 12:50:00 ET Summary Geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating, as seen with recent events in Asia and the Middle East. We see it keeping inflation pressures elevated longer term. U.S. stocks climbed to record highs last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as mar...

2024-01-22 11:05:00 ET Summary While we have hit a new all-time high in the S&P 500, this rally lacks enthusiasm. Hedge funds have not added to their long positions, and mutual funds/ETFs have seen outflows. The opportunity set in this market is balanced, and risks are sym...

2024-01-22 11:00:00 ET Summary Many are viewing this market as the beginnings of a new bull market. I am viewing this as the end of a multi-decade bull market. I will explain what I am looking for in the coming year or two to confirm a long-term bear market has begun. ...

2024-01-22 03:48:00 ET Summary It's increasingly challenging for the bond market - and Fed officials - to downplay the odds of a meaningful upside surprise in U.S. economic activity. The rates market ended the week pricing a 49% probability of a rate cut by the March 20th FOMC mee...

2024-01-22 03:13:00 ET Summary Friday, January 19th, 2024, saw the first trade above the January ’22 high of 4,815, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing at 4,839.81, or the first all-time high in 24 months. The all-time high came on no new economic data, or critical earn...

2024-01-21 16:00:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 has broken to all-time highs, following the Nasdaq and Dow Jones. Technical analysis suggests the breakout is genuine - there are no red flags or bearish signals. What to expect next week. The S&P500 ( SPY ) has ...

2024-01-21 06:45:39 ET Summary Renewed uncertainty regarding the pace and time of 2024 rate cuts by the Fed add to risks for stocks and bonds. The odds for a March rate cut have declined to under 50% from as high as 80% earlier this month. We expect the Fed to maintain a hawki...

2024-01-21 06:15:00 ET Summary The leadership in the S&P 500 has contracted, with the "Magnificent 7" being replaced by the "Troubling 3" (Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia). The Troubling 3 stocks account for nearly all of the gains in the S&P 500 this year. The market is b...

2024-01-20 21:06:00 ET Summary Our belief is that there will primarily be one call to get correct - one call to rule them all - and that is whether the US economy has a hard landing (recession) or a soft one. Every hard landing starts out as a soft landing, marked by the Fed's int...