JHML News and Press, John Hancock Multifactor Large Cap From 03/22/22

Does a recession call rise to the level of a high-confidence forecast? No, not yet. Hedging one’s bets on the business cycle for the US is, for now, rational. It would be naïve to assume that all is well and that recession risk is destined to remain low for the foresee...

The economy is running hot, and it takes time for those rate hikes to take effect and cool down inflation. According to our options research, we have entered positive gamma again. Positive gamma is when things become less volatile and we are more apt to see a slow upward grind in the ...

The rally in stocks this past week was largely driven by options expiration and re-pricing of volatility. This rally should fade early this coming week, as hawkish Fed fears return. Additionally, the Fed wants tighter financial conditions, and that will not be conducive to a stock...

It was more like a natural disaster or an exogenous shock to the economy because of the way the government shut down so much of the economy. Two indications that are worrisome are energy price surges and the flattening yield curve. Understanding that 60/40 isn’t necessarily...

Oil price shocks become deflationary because they trigger demand destruction and economic contraction, especially when the shock coincides with a leap in the cost of food, shelter, and other staples. The Canadian Petrodollar has been diving against the greenback over the last year, ev...

The economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 in the United States is good, though inflation will remain high and storm clouds grow in later years. Economic growth will be pushed up by past stimulus, both fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. Inflation will remain high this year and nex...

We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year. Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages. ...

Emerging Markets are outperforming the rest of the world, due in large part to windfall profits in the commodities-exporting countries of South America and the Middle East. If you want to follow the money, this is a good place to start. Money has been flowing out of tech, consumer dis...

As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...

At the moment, some variables are beginning to align that might be a sign of a recession on the horizon. Up until the Russian invasion into Ukraine, the market was nearly unanimous in thinking the Federal Reserve would increase the Fed Funds Rate by at least .25%, if not .50%. The...