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We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year.
Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages.
At this stage the leading recession indicators we follow do NOT point to a recession beginning within the next six months (two quarters of negative GDP growth can occur in the absence of a recession), but there’s now a high probability that a boom-to-bust transition will begin during the first half of this year.