JO News and Press, iPathA Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN From 09/27/22

Summary Stocks are now back down to the lows set in June and sentiment is as negative now as it was then. There is a long list of technical items that have hit levels or rates of change we associate with bottoms, short- or long-term. The economic data last week was mostly abou...

Summary A global recession is likely, with at least slower economic growth virtually certain. The tightening is not a mistake, but in most cases it’s coming too late, which means more economic damage than it had begun earlier. Businesses selling to China can expect lowe...

Summary The Fed’s GDP growth forecast was lowered to just .2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023 and well below the 2.5% US GDP growth capacity estimate. The US 2 and 30-year Treasury yield curve inverted 58 bps, the most since 2000. If December 2022 ends this hiking cycle, follo...

Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...

Summary The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation and an ...

Summary Mitigating the impact of inflation might mean cutting interest rate sensitivity by favoring shorter-dated fixed income but also trimming speculative growth exposure in equity portfolios. The market appears to seize on any sign of easing inflation to be bullish, while remai...

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...

Summary Core CPI, excludes food and energy, rose from July's year-over-year reading of 5.9% to a YoY rate of 6.3% in August. FedEx reported dismal earnings on Friday sending the stock down 21%. A large part of the economic data seems to be indicating the economy is slowing. ...

Summary Global weather extremes are for the record books and due to La Niña and Climate Change. The third straight La Niña winter coming and possible implications. While droughts ease for Northern Brazil, more potential weather problems for grains and possible warm l...

Summary Today, every major part of the world economy is seemingly prone to a serious economic crisis. The European economy is perhaps the most immediate cause for concern. All of these world economic problems have to raise serious questions about the wisdom of the Federal Rese...