KLDW News and Press, Knowledge Leaders Developed World From 05/14/21

Although some short-term supply bottlenecks and financial speculation might drive commodity prices and inflation expectations further from here, a few big-picture facts are worth noting. The consensus expects consumer spending to keep accelerating because some households have higher s...

The Mother of All Recoveries (MOFAR) is not a U.S. story; it’s a developed-market story. Inflation is not likely to start galloping into the double digits or even high single digits. I expect it to be closer to 3%. If a company can’t grow its earnings in this environ...

Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...

After a decent start, emerging markets have lagged behind developed markets. Emerging markets don't necessarily correspond to neat value vs. growth or cyclical vs. defensive narratives. The best environment for emerging market economies is one of synchronized global growth. ...

We've written extensively about our growing optimism on international equities recently, and our enthusiasm hasn't faded. We're encouraged by economic data that continues to rebound, while the approval, acquisition and distribution of vaccines seem to be improving at the same time. ...

Developed-market (DM) household savings recorded a significant gain last year, with an increase equivalent to 10% of combined gross domestic product (GDP). This build-up is likely to bolster consumption as restrictions on economic and social activity are removed and pent-up demand unl...

The first quarter of 2021 brought what the Asset Allocation Committee expected, and as it looks to the next six to 12 months, it faces two questions. Do we think the economy will overheat, pushing bond yields to levels that unsettle equity markets or even force central banks to stifle...

Global PMI employment index at second-highest since May 2019 as firms seek to boost capacity. Job gains fueled by rising backlogs of work and brighter outlook. Broad-based developed word job market strength contrasts with stalling emerging market employment. For further deta...

US leads global expansion, followed by UK. Manufacturing rises across the board, albeit limited by supply disruptions. Virus restrictions, vaccine roll-outs, business sentiment and stimulus lead to varying service sector trends. For further details see: U.S. Leads Develo...

Though history is often a good guide, it's important to recognize that markets can - and have - changed. If Value stocks are extremely cheap versus the market, it is necessarily the case that Growth stocks are very expensive. The goal of the backtest was to ensure that despite its...