KLDW News and Press, Knowledge Leaders Developed World From 11/03/21

The interesting thing is that, depending on how you define “global stock market capitalization”, the US stock market is not nearly as big as we think. If we use the actual full market capitalization the US stock market is just 41% of global equities. But if we use the in...

China’s emergence as a global economy on the world stage is perhaps the biggest economic story of the last 30 years. Due to short sale constraints, among other features, China’s exchanges have sometimes been prone to added volatility, with notable bubbles and busts occur...

The long-run risk premium forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded in October, edging up to 6.1%, based on revised numbers through last month. The new estimate is calculated in terms of the projected return over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based...

US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and stocks posted the strongest returns for the major asset classes in October - by wide margins. US REITs surged 7.7% last month, reversing September’s sharp decline. The recovery puts American property shares in the lead for 2021 with ...

Faced with strong growth and rising prices, central bankers around the world have signaled that the start of policy normalization is imminent. Financial markets have certainly gotten the message, with expectations for rate hikes over the next couple of years soaring over the past mont...

Low Vol has been in the doldrums for most of the equity rally from the pandemic lows of March 2020, as would be expected based on its historical return patterns. Well-established academic research has found that stocks with lower volatility (or beta) tend to generate higher risk-adjus...

Consensus remains cautiously positive on the economic and market outlook for the coming year, but for the first time in 18 months, we have started trimming risk in our views, advocating building dry powder to take advantage of opportunities that arise due to potential short-term market vo...

The financial markets today are huge (certainly much bigger than at any time in history), and the hands pushing real yields down (the Federal Reserve and the ECB) are extremely strong. Interestingly, while real yields are at record lows, the supply of financial assets is at record hig...

As we move into Q4, markets are in a tug-of-war involving various good news vs. bad news debates. COVID-19 cases are declining, but central banks are considering tightening monetary policy. Earnings growth is strong, but year-over-year comparisons will become tougher. Employment stati...

The strong economic and market trends of the first half of 2021 wavered during the third quarter. The coronavirus delta variant caught up with the US at the height of the summer, just as vaccinations slowed and concerns grew that inflation might flare and persist. Even so, equity mark...