KLDW News and Press, Knowledge Leaders Developed World From 04/07/22

The Ukraine invasion and resulting sanctions have led to a steep downturn in the Russian economy. Rising backlogs were most commonly reported in the US and across the Eurozone. Growth is proving encouragingly resilient, but the March survey data indicate that risks have tilted to ...

Production and demand growth was subdued by a combination of headwinds, including the Ukraine war and new COVID-19 related disruptions - notably in China. In Europe, the Ukraine war took a toll on production growth, most prominently leading to renewed falls in output in Poland and the...

Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent infla...

We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...

Western economies received a rude awakening to the risks of supply chain disruptions and component dependency/deficiency during the Covid pandemic. Sovereigns, businesses, and households today are all highly leveraged. Inflation is likely to be higher than the Fed’s target ...

Even before the war began, supply chain frictions had only improved marginally from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, expect even longer-lasting disruptions, a new round of delays, and protracted supply shortages. No economic sector can escape the surge in energy prices. For furth...

Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...

Are we closer to the end or the beginning of a market correction? What does this uncertainty mean for global equity markets? Deteriorating growth outlook, inflation and geopolitical woes: Where do we go from here? For further details see: Market Correction: Are We Closer...