MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 03/21/19

There’s no real nice way to say that I found Wednesday's FOMC minutes to be disgraceful. The only conclusion I’m left with is that Jerome Powell has capitulated and is now scared of either the market turning on him, the president turning on him or both. Otherwise, how do you expl...

S&P 500: What Is Priced In Today? Starting in January of this year, I started to write about the earnings expectations that are priced into the S&P 500 or the more commonly traded SPDR S&P 500 Trust ( SPY ) ETF. I started in January by writing a research note, which you can fi...

This morning, my normal global scan of economic data and updates to existing models was augmented by a series of surveys from IHS Markit on Business Conditions. While IHS Markit updated the business conditions for many individual countries including the United States, Spain, France, Ita...

What do you expect economic growth to be in the United States for the next four or five years? Do you see the economy moving ahead at a fairly rapid pace or do you see it proceeding along at a rather tepid speed, something more in line with the overall economic growth of the past ten years? ...

Two months ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a market panic. He suggested the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may. They promised at least two if not three more rate hikes in 2019. The stock market fell out of bed. Fast forward to now. The Fed...

The BCI at 250.0 is above last week's downward revised 249.6, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 95.0. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.4 is above last week’s downward revised 9.3. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling ...

This is the final part of the three-part series on the yield curve. You can read part I and part II by clicking here and here . In part I of this series, I started at the front-end of the yield curve, actually discussing Federal Funds Futures, as well as touched on short-term intere...

In part I of this series, we discussed the very short end of the yield curve, actually starting with Fed Funds futures, to understand the expectations in the market today as it pertains to Federal Reserve policy. If you have not read part I, you can do so by clicking here . After analyz...

President Trump stated in January 2017 that he wanted a weak U.S. dollar. The primary reason Mr. Trump wanted a weak U.S. dollar was to reduce the country’s trade balance. In January 2017, it took about $1.07 to purchase one Euro. (It took just above $1.04 to buy a Euro in Decem...

Yield Curve - Understanding All The (Conflicting?) Messages The shape of the yield curve and the various rates on Treasury bonds provide the most comprehensive outlook on growth, inflation, Fed policy and more across various time frames. Many analysts either dismiss the yield curve and the T...