MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 05/23/19

The BCI at 257.7 is below last week's upward revised 258.8, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 89.8. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.2 is below last week’s 14.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp n...

In the past few years, I wrote a lot about the unprecedented credit crisis I foresee. I call it “The Great Reset.” I have to add, it isn’t what I think the future should look like or what I want to see. But almost the entire developed world has painted itself into a...

Last year saw something exceedingly rare. For a period of 9 months there were exclusively rate hikes by the major central banks we monitor. But this period of tightening is turning, and now rate cuts are beginning to dominate again. If this was an important chart last year, you better believe ...

Treasury yields are likely at a temporary sticking point, waiting for the next catalyst to move yields materially in either direction. When I talk about yields being at an important level, it should not be confused with technical analysis. I don't use technical analysis in my approach. The ec...

We didn't know what we thought we knew. As far as market participants understood it, a Sino-US trade pact was a done deal. Last year's escalations gave way to a steady stream of recycled headlines about "progress" in 2019. Talks are always "constructive", according to Steve Mnuchin. China i...

This article has an ambitious purpose, namely, to show investors how interconnected different financial sectors are and how they influence other sectors. The stock markets, the Fed, the debt and the dollar are not independent entities that go their own way. They influence each other. The US do...

The disruption this week is connected with the US-China trade talks that is scaring financial markets throughout the world. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 2.45 percent as money poured into the bond market, down from the 2.50 percent close yesterday. This rush to ris...

A few months ago, I wrote part III to this series outlining why interest rates would continue to remain low and most likely continue to fall on the long-end of the curve, confounding consensus opinion as to why interest rates should rise. The consensus opinion on long-term interest rates, ...

Three pieces of recent good news for Federal Reserve officials. First, the rate of growth of the US economy rose or remained constant for the twelfth consecutive month , coming in for the first quarter of 2019 at 3.2 percent. Second, the growth rate of labor force productivity came in at...

The BCI at 258.6 is above last week's 257.9, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.7 is above last week’s 12.9. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, o...