MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 05/02/19

The BCI at 258.6 is above last week's 257.9, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.7 is above last week’s 12.9. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, o...

Why Did Rates Fall On The "Strong" GDP Print? On Friday, the BEA released the Q1 GDP figures which widely beat consensus expectations, rising 3.2% quarter over quarter (QoQ). Under the headline number revealed much weaker results than the top-line "beat" suggested which is why nominal int...

At the end of the second quarter of 2019, the US economy will have completed ten years of growth, the longest period of economic expansion since the end of the Second World War. It appears as if the annual compound rate of growth will come out around 2.3 percent. As post-World War II busines...

While the housing market has historically been the catalyst for many U.S. recessions, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner explains in the video below why it’s unlikely to be the cause of the next economic downturn. “Housing is normally the cause of recessions – with...

Understanding The Economy: Where Are We Headed? In a recent research note, published about two months ago, I outlined why recession risk was low despite a decelerating economic environment. I made this assessment based on my four-factor coincident index which was constructed based o...

Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...

The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for March 2019 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from government s...

A sign of the times when central banks make decisions based upon what is happening elsewhere in the world. “Fed Worried About Slowing Global Growth in Pausing Rate Increases” read the headlines in the New York Times . Jim Tankersley begins his article by writing “Fede...

One key feature of the last 15 months has been the consistent declines in the global manufacturing PMI. After peaking in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has undergone a major slowdown, and that was a key driver behind the weakness in global markets last year (and a reflection of st...

As I have written many times before, I believe that the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. In fact, you can read my last article on the matter right here, as it explains this perspective using many historical examples. So, in following up on this perspective, let’s see if ...