MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 06/07/19

If you wanted to, you could point to news that the US will delay the imposition of higher tariff rates on some Chinese products to June 15 as a catalyst for the Friday morning surge in equities ( SPY ), but it's probably safe to assume that rate cut bets are again playing a big role in propell...

Here’s a key quote from yesterday's complimentary edition of The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: “The problem remains that you can't eliminate the economic cycle. While it's nice to imagine PE Powell and the Vice Chair of the Fed coming out every single day, r...

On Friday, the stock market closed down making May the worst month for stocks this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed at 2,752, down from the historic highs hit toward the end of April. And, with the growing threat of major tariff changes, the probability that ther...

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many people thought excessive government spending and the resulting debt would bring inflation or even hyperinflation. We wanted a hawkish Federal Reserve or, better yet, a gold standard to prevent it. Reality turned out differently. Federal debt rose steadily,...

Unlike most articles that have the President's name in the title, this note will not be political in nature but rather will discuss some facts regarding the trade dispute with China and our trading relationship with the rest of the world. I want to outline one of the problems that the admini...

As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...

The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...

Barring a dramatic turn, May will be the worst month of 2019 for many major global benchmarks. Indeed, it will likely be the first down month of the year for stocks. The proximate cause is obvious: The trade war between the world's two largest economies is back on. The re-escalation of trade...

Right now, the Federal Reserve seems to be doing very well. Because the Federal Reserve seems to be dong very well and seems to be controlling the situation, the value of the US dollar has strengthened this year and shows many signs of moving even higher. The value of the US dollar is an i...

The BCI at 257.7 is below last week's upward revised 258.8, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 89.8. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.2 is below last week’s 14.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp n...