MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 02/05/19

Yesterday, I asked the question, “ Which is Right? The Bond Market or the Stock Market? .” Prices in both markets had been rising over the past month, or two, or three. This is not the usual situation, so it was natural to raise the question about which market is right about ...

The euphoria that carried the stock market to an 8% gain in January all but erased the pessimism that led to one of the worst December's on record, when the S&P 500 ( SPY ) fell nearly 9%. Net, over the past two months, there has been a lot of chop, volatility and constantly shifting narr...

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the January 2019 rate...

SPDR DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF (BATS: EMTL ) - $0.1685 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 4.64%. SPDR Barclays Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF (NYSEARCA: FLRN ) - $0.0780 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 3.22%. SPDR Nuveen S&P High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYMB ) - $0.195...

The BCI at 243.9 is below above last week's 244.7, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 57.0. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 5.6 is above last week’s 5.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs ...

During most of 2018, as the stock market seemingly drifted higher each day, equity bulls were empowered to make renewed calls for the end of the bond bull market that has been ongoing since the 1980's when the 30-year Treasury rate was north of 15%. There were also several name notable invest...

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) recently released their quarterly survey on business conditions which resulted in a more gloomy outlook for sales, pricing, and profits than previous surveys. The respondents in the survey also reported that neither the trade war, nor...

“Kill yourself for recognition Kill yourself to never ever stop You broke another mirror You're turning into something you are not” --High And Dry, Radiohead, 1995 The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 gave corporate earnings a sugar high. GAAP earnings on the S...

It's not too early to ask: Would a U.S. economic slowdown mean political hay for Democratic candidates in 2020? As Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe explains in the video below, he sees the Republicans playing defense, and Democrats on offense for the marathon campaign heading towar...

The word is that Federal Reserve officials are considering slowing down or stopping altogether the efforts to reduce the size of its securities portfolio, something it began in October 2017. Nick Timiraos writes in the Wall Street Journal, “Federal Reserve officials are near decidin...