NIFE News and Press, Direxion Fallen Knives

Summary Economic data has been "recession-like", but the FED has no option but to raise rates in that backdrop to kill inflation that remains resilient. US economic growth is anemic today. Using the word "mild" to describe any recession scenario now is a mistake. TINA is dead....

Summary Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has confirmed the central bank's hawkish policy turn. The anti-inflation strategy features demand destruction and labor market imbalance correction. This will almost certainly lead to rising unemployment and a significant recessio...

Summary U.S. monetary policy continues to tighten while signs of recession are abound and a major speculative bubble unwinds. This was last attempted in late 1929 and exacerbated the ensuing stock market crash. Severe volatility should be expected if the Federal Reserve choose...

Summary Leading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. Howev...

Summary The Fed will hike until something breaks. And politicians in DC will not let Powell break inflation. Things are starting to break - the British pound, the Japanese yen, the German energy market. The market has been pinning its hopes on the idea that the Fed would pivot...

Summary As September winds down, three sets of economic reports will draw the most attention. Many will see the US PCE deflator as the key given the monetary cycle, but its thunder has been stolen. The Mexican peso is one of four emerging market currencies that have appreciate...

Summary Chinese big four bank CDS each surged about 10 bps, the largest single-session gains since the July 15th peak risk off. The dollar index gained 0.6% Tuesday, trading back above 110. EM currencies were under pressure, with the Polish zloty, Chilean peso, Hungarian forint an...

Summary The Fed funds target rate is now in the range of 3.0 to 3.25 percent. Indications provided by the members of the FOMC at this week’s meeting suggests that the Fed funds rate will eventually settle somewhere just north or just south of five percent. As Fed chair ...

Summary The Fed is making a potentially catastrophic mistake in raising rates. A recession is becoming more likely, even as higher rates create more headwinds for equities. Small-cap stock selling pressure is especially pronounced. From the time the U.S. equity marke...

Summary The US economy is weakening, growth expectations are muted and stagflation is back in the picture. This bear market has wiped out all of the 2021 gains. All of the major indices test the June lows and are at a critical pivot point now. "I have not failed....