OILX News and Press, UBS AG London Branch ZC SP ETRACS REDEEM 22/02/2046 USD 25 - Ser B From 12/12/22

Summary The spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, a market benchmark, is actually down for the year to date. Oil’s downward trend over the past two months is one of the more counterintuitive developments we have seen this year. If China manages to stay on course with it...

Summary I am structurally bullish on gold and oil with a multi-year timeframe. Between the two, gold likely has the advantage fundamentally and in terms of current momentum over the next 6-12 months. This is part of our Stock Waves' "Where Fundamentals Meets Technicals" short-form t...

Summary The physical oil market has turned bearish. The signals we said to watch out for in June are flashing red. The only way we can arrive at what the market is expecting for 2023 is to assume a ~900k b/d drop in global oil demand y-o-y for Q1. The good news is that even if w...

Summary U.S. equity markets are grappling with the highest inflation in decades, critical central bank policy decisions, and slowing economic growth. Energy’s positive dispersion can be attributed to the outperformance of energy stocks this year, which has propelled the S&P E...

Summary China is the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest crude importer. Earlier in 2022, crude oil was in backwardation. Beware of political risks in both Russia and China in the coming months. By Blu Putnam In November, the powerful influence of...

Summary That crude oil prices and inflation have a correlation is long known. The issue is which comes first, and is oil causal for inflation or vice versa. The comparison 12mo PCE, 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE, WTI spells out the reality. This is especially visible since 2002. The 12mo Tr...

Summary The energy sector has undergone immense change since 2020. We find the energy space very attractive right now. We think valuations are compelling. We believe that if our thesis is correct, the upside will take care of itself and potentially be quite attractive. ...

Summary There are two meetings going on today - the G20 major economies meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali today and tomorrow (November 15 and 16), and the COP27, which focuses on climate change, running November 7-18 in Egypt. Crude oil prices initially rose early last week...

Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...

Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...