OILX News and Press, UBS AG London Branch ZC SP ETRACS REDEEM 22/02/2046 USD 25 - Ser B From 12/21/22

Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...

Summary As we enter 2023, bottom-up fundamental research is going to be critical as we go through this environment. So economic growth in '23 is pretty uncertain in some regions, maybe a little bit more certain in others. I think energy transition is something which is going to cont...

Summary The key supply uncertainty for the oil market this year has been how well Russian supply would hold up. We believe that there is upside to European gas prices in 2023 - however, much will depend on how much storage the EU manages to draw down this winter. We expect power mar...

Summary Inflation continues to moderate, not only here, but also in Europe. Despite the negative economic reports and the reaction to the Fed rate hike, the US Dollar barely budged for the week. Value yet again outperformed Growth in the last week, this time by a spread of almost 1%...

Summary CPI rose only 0.1% in November and 7.1% in the past 12 months. The monthly CPI was lower than the economists’ consensus expectation of 0.3%, and that triggered a massive bond rally that caused Treasury yields to plummet. The Fed never fights market rates, so even thou...

Summary PPI is cooling off, due largely to the fact that the big PPI surges from a year ago are being “cut off” in the annual calculation. Core PPI, excluding food, energy and trade margins, rose just 0.3% in November and 4.9% in the past 12 months. ISM announced that its ...

Summary Avoiding envy, and its associated pitfalls, is one of the simple secrets to a successful investment portfolio. Value once again outperformed Growth in the last week. After closing below the 200-day moving average for two weeks running, the US Dollar seems firmly entrenched i...

Summary Demand destruction is weighing on prices globally as financial conditions tighten. The good news is that headline CPI is set to follow crude lower in 2023. This Wednesday, any dovish nods out of the FOMC could spark a year-end relief rally in risk markets. Demand d...

Summary The market implications of price caps on Russian oil. As Russian price caps kick in, what it means for oil production. Why oil prices are giving up gains for the year and sitting at a new 2022 low. As the G7’s new price cap on Russian oil kicks in, a...

Summary The spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, a market benchmark, is actually down for the year to date. Oil’s downward trend over the past two months is one of the more counterintuitive developments we have seen this year. If China manages to stay on course with it...