OLEM News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 18/04/2041 USD 50 - 06740P221 From 10/18/22

Summary The nearby futures price of WTI declined about 25%, and at $80 per barrel was more than 10% lower than it was before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The uncertain evolution of geopolitical and economic conditions in 2022 and onward make oil balances difficult to pi...

Summary PPI and CPI numbers came out last week, and both were higher than expected. Fed officials are concerned about the persistence of high inflation, and a 0.75% key interest rate hike at the November FOMC meeting is virtually certain. Worldwide demand for crude oil naturally r...

Summary Janet Yellen raised the specter of buying Treasuries this past week, without it being QE. The comments seemed to be born of some illiquidity issues within the Treasury market. 2022 is a midterm election year. It’s been grim YTD with the S&P 500 down -23.83% whil...

Summary OECD liquids production continues to rise quarter on quarter, putting downward pressure on the price of oil. Significant share repurchase programs led by Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corporation keep the share price of these companies from falling. In August 2022, India's c...

Summary The UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index and other commodity index strategies slumped during September. CMCI declined by 5.5% in September but remains up 8.4% year-to-date. The Bloomberg Commodity Index declined by 8.1% in September and remains up 13.6% year-to-date. ...

Summary June Non-OPEC production increased by 178 kb/d to 48,990 kb/d. The largest increases came from Russia, 510 kb/d and the U.S., 201 kb/d. The current spread between Western Canada Select (WCS) and WTI has increased to $25/b from a more typical $12/b to $17/b. Mexico ...

Summary Are October rallies just bear traps in disguise? When will we see a turn in inflation? How to navigate bear markets. September was a brutal month for equities. Could markets strengthen this fall or are rallies just bear traps in disguise? Kim Parlee t...

Summary The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on 5 October announced plans to reduce oil production quotas by 2 million barrels a day (b/d) starting in November. While the oil market has rallied on the OPEC+ announcement, this retracement is rather m...

Summary For energy investors, the key takeaway from the OPEC+ meeting is that the group is willing to defend a floor in oil prices, presumably around $90 per barrel for the global benchmark Brent. In effect, a 2 million-barrel-per-day (MMBpd) cut based on August targets means that...

Summary In recent months, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a cyclical downturn. As such, we remain in a situation where positive economic data (i.e. resilient Q3 corporate earnings) could be considered bearish as such an outcome will delay any hope of a dovis...