OLEM News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 18/04/2041 USD 50 - 06740P221 From 02/28/23

Summary Like the bloated January jobs report, the retail sales report was also apparently distorted by seasonal adjustments. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released on Wednesday, revealing that the vast majority of FOMC voting members favored a 0.25% key interest ...

Summary There is some evidence of lower consumption trends for crude oil as LNG becomes a more popular fuel. Next week’s EIA data set will examine the trends concerning this observation. The rig count belies the rising Fudge Factor in EIA data which suggests US Crude producti...

Summary The average annual increase in World C+C output over the 2005Q1 to 2024Q4 period (20 years) is about 473 kb/d. The top 10 non-OPEC oil producers as of 2022Q3 are the US, Russia, Canada, China, Brazil, Norway, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Qatar, and Oman. The EIA and OPEC have similar...

Summary Given the forecastable nature of the business cycle, understanding what markets are pricing in from a business cycle perspective is an integral tool to one’s asset allocation decisions. As it stands, stocks as a whole have done a solid job pricing in the growth slowdown. ...

Summary As Europe strives to end its reliance on Russian crude oil, the future does not look good for Russia. Sadly, the Biden Administration is still playing politics with our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In the wake of stunning January retail sales report, most economists will be ...

Summary OPEC crude output was revised lower in December 2022 by 45 kb/d compared to last month’s report and November 2022 OPEC crude output was revised lower by 16 kb/d. OPEC output has increased by 797 kb/d since January 2022, from 28079 kb/d to 28876 kb/d in January 2023. W...

Summary Brent futures and WTI crude have fallen over 8.5% since my article “What Awaits The Oil And Gas Industry In 2023” was published. Following the results of an excellent year for the oil and gas industry in 2022, Exxon Mobil plans to send up to $50 billion in a share ...

Summary The oil macro in 2023 will likely be heavily influenced by headlines related to Russian supply and Chinese demand as the country reopens. US production growth is expected to be modest, as companies practice capital discipline and grapple with service cost inflation. Traditio...

Summary With the CPI losing the relief from cooling energy prices, this month showed a solid uptick in prices, coming in at 0.54% (~6.6% annualized). One concerning thing about the most recent print is that many categories sit above the current 12-month trend. The Fed has been reloa...

Summary The U.S. is now in the midst of producing record amounts of natural gas, which will help prices firm up. The milder winter kept prices low, but as the U.S. and Europe are hit by more Arctic air fronts in late winter, natural gas prices could start rising. As seasonal demand rise...