OPER News and Press, ETF Series Solutions ClearShares Ultra-Short Maturity From 07/19/22

With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...

The inflation fears led to concern that the Fed would raise interest rates by a full percent when they next meet and that in turn produced selling in stocks. Non-US stocks continue to struggle and that will probably be the case until the dollar comes back down. Economies are big c...

The US yield spread has inverted, and the 2-year yield is now higher than the 10-year yield. This phenomenon has been a well-known predictor of recessions. A yield spread inversion between the 10-year yield and 3-month yield has been a better predictor of recessions than the more popu...

With inflation running out of control and markets furiously attempting to re-price Federal Reserve interest rate policy, we’re seeing some truly wild moves in the fixed income markets. The bulk of the flattening in the 3m10y curve has occurred more recently. Prior to the cu...

As of today, the percentage of inverted points on the yield curve reached the YTD highs seen in mid-June of 17.9%. Following the first inversion in at least one year when a recession did follow, it has taken an average of 271 trading days to officially enter a recession. The short...

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...

Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...

Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...

The tone has become markedly risk-off, bonds rallying as risk assets sell off. The US curve starts signalling a looming cycle change as recession fears take over. As the first ECB hikes draw closer, the central bank deploys its first line of defence for bond spreads, but it remain...

Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy. USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the...