OPER News and Press, ETF Series Solutions ClearShares Ultra-Short Maturity From 07/30/22

On Thursday the Fed raised rates by another 75bps and reiterated its commitment to Quantitative Tightening. Over the last two months, the balance sheet has fallen by $25B vs. a target of $95B. The upcoming reductions will be too little too late to have any meaningful impact on red...

The 2-10 spread has been inverted for a while, and if the Fed is hell-bent on front-loading rate hikes this summer, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread will invert soon. The Federal Reserve can cause a recession with rapid rate hikes in an economy that carries way too much financial l...

Consumer spending, industrial output, credit quality, and other indicators don’t suggest economic risk. The reduction of the deficit will contribute to the building of recessionary pressures. The best signals of a recessionary onset occur when a bulk of the yield spreads tu...

The VIX-yield curve cycle is a powerful economic phenomena that has persisted since at least the end of the 1980s. Recessions happen following periods of tight monetary policy, characterized by flat yield curves and high levels of equity volatility. Fed tightening is beginning to ...

The services side of the economy is considerably larger than the goods side and if it really is contracting at that rate, a recession is probably coming fairly soon. Investing is often a counterintuitive exercise and it is most counterintuitive – and hardest – at turning...

The current shape of the yield curve really does look like the bond market expects a recession to show up in the not-too-distant future. The compression in longer-dated maturities has been having a mostly positive effect on the stock market this week, particularly the growth-oriented ...

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Expanding the analysis across the yield curve also provides useful information about the business cycle. All models and indicato...

The markets don’t seem to be necessarily debating whether the U.S. economy will enter into a Fed-induced recession but rather just how shallow or deep any downturn may ultimately be. Yield curve may need to reveal a much more noteworthy inversion before signaling a recession co...

There has been a dramatic fall in Treasury yields in the past month and an equally dramatic fall in energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. The Ukraine situation holds many unknowns, as it is a major driver of financial markets and there is no end in sight as to when the fightin...

With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...