PBUG News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN PERPETUAL USD From 09/19/22

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...

Summary Gold got hammered this week following the higher-than-expected CPI. Funds are net short Gold for the first time since 2019, when Gold was bottoming out in the 1200s. The 10-Year nominal yield just hit a negatively divergent double top at ~3.50, with the risk of a few m...

Summary The market is telegraphing that what the Fed is planning to do is potentially destructive to the economy. Why does the Fed still think the only way to lower inflation is to undermine the economy? That's Phillips Curve thinking, and it has been debunked countless times. ...

Summary The hot inflation reading for August was a narrative buster for many investors. What are the implications of Tuesday's report for stocks? What are the associated effects for bonds and gold? Well, I woke up Tuesday mornin’ It was supposed to be the late...

Summary Companies were hit by the combination of falling metals prices and rising costs - leading to earnings misses and cost revisions. Inflation is driven by excess demand and/or a lack of supply. The markets are more concerned with rising rates than they are about inflation...

Summary Gold is trading near the pivotal $1,700 level. A break below would complete a bearish topping pattern. More importantly, gold has served as a leading indicator for inflation. Gold broke out as early as June 2019, way ahead of the commodity complex. Gold's next big dire...

Summary Gold has rarely seen more shorts than longs over the past decade and is the only precious metal currently positioned net long (+22.29%). With a net 9.24% of open interest positioned short, that is the most pessimistic positioning reading since May 2019. As speculators ...

Summary The main economic data release for the trading week is the US inflation report. The UK economy is in a precarious position and facing a recession. Chinese President Xi is expected to meet with Russian President Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in U...

Summary The Treasury added $341B of debt in August. This was the largest increase in debt since January and is more than 10 times larger than the increase in July. Another major occurrence was the increase in short-term debt. The Treasury increased Bills by $210B, the largest incr...

Summary Gold fell 2% in August, as higher yields and a stronger dollar continued to exert pressure. Managed money net positioning in gold turned positive during the month, while global gold ETF outflows of 51t (US$2.9bn) were lower than July’s. Gold could remain under p...