PBUG News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN PERPETUAL USD From 03/09/22

Extreme monetary and fiscal policy would lead to inflation. Couple that with extreme supply chain issues, and here we are with really high inflation - highest inflation that we've seen really since the past 40 years. Our biggest risk right now is that we become entrenched. The psychol...

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into its second week, the economic fallout is gradually coming into focus. In our view, it is highly likely that economic growth will slow in the US and globally, but less so in the U.S. We expect market volatility to remain elevated for an...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created significant uncertainty for the cycle outlook. The global economy was on track for strongly above-trend growth in 2022. The war in Ukraine will likely have a negative impact on growth and cause higher inflation this year, with Europe tak...

We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year. Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages. ...

This post attempts to put the dollar and commodity prices in some long-term perspective. What stands out the most is that the dollar is relatively strong vis a vis most other currencies, but commodity prices are also very strong. It's also not hard to argue that the current surge ...

Almost every commodity rose in prices last week, as did the dollar. Those two factors - rising dollar and rising commodity prices - mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week. There was considerable volatility in stocks last week,...

Global markets are in turmoil as the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers nuclear fears. Inflation fears are also being triggered. Oil futures are now trading at over $110 per barrel, but that’s not the only thing surging. Grains and other agricultural commodities skyrocketed b...

I don't pretend to know how the Russia/Ukraine war will play out, but I can shed some light on how it has impacted the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Limiting Russia's ability to use the SWIFT payment system is a big factor reducing liquidity overseas. Whenever the market gets very ...

Oil, natural gas, wheat, corn, palladium, aluminum and nickel are all trading higher, including gold. Geopolitical risk is an inherently difficult thing to quantify. Gold price behavior in 2021 was disappointing, with the backdrop of an elevated level of inflation. For furth...

Gold began its rally on January 28. The Fed historically doesn’t like to hike rates into geopolitical tensions. Despite Gold’s fall, it still managed to close above the pivotal 1920 level. For further details see: Powell Caps The Rally In Gold