PKB News and Press, Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction From 02/22/23

Summary Market is still frozen, potential sellers sit on vacant properties, hoping this too shall pass. Cash Buyers, investors, second-home buyers pull back further. The median price of all types of homes fell for the seventh month in a row, to $359,900, down 13.2% from the peak in June...

Summary The M2 measure of money supply is declining, and higher interest rates are increasing the demand for money; this is a one-two punch which is rapidly snuffing out inflation. There is still no sign of the kind of economic or financial market stress that would trigger a recession. ...

Summary Wednesday’s release of homebuilder sentiment from the NAHB showed a significant rebound in sentiment. While sentiment has risen in back-to-back months, the moves from January to February were historic across the report. The only index to not experience a monthly move ...

Summary Sagging public REITs could signal potential softening in private real estate markets over the next year. While much will depend on interest rates, available supply, and the length and depth of any slowdown in GDP, we believe private-market real estate values could have further t...

Summary Fed anticipates job losses and they usually cut as the job market is transitioning from job creation to job loss. Housing is the most interest rate-sensitive part of the economy. If the Fed needs to hike more than what’s being anticipated that higher dividend will hel...

Summary A mild recession is coming in the US. Unemployment and migration trends are shifting. How will these factors play out across different states and regions? In 2022, 28 states registered a record low unemployment rate, as demographic trends and pandemic-related disruptions continu...

Summary On a rolling 3-month basis, the decline in mortgage rates continues to rank as some of the largest since the late 1990s. Given the alleviation on the rates front, purchase applications have been rebounding. The 68% month-over-month increase in applications has been the large...

Summary Markets posted strong gains in January, but will it last? Impact of China's reopening on global markets. Is this the year for a rebound in fixed income? Global markets have had a positive start to the year. But the year ahead likely won’t be withou...

Summary Going by most observers, there have been two major housing bubbles in the 21st Century. The inflation phase for the first housing bubble had its origins in August 2000 and peaked in March 2007. This more recent bubble has had several phases, but using the measure of median n...

Summary Data revisions affecting median new home sale prices and median household income confirm October 2022 as the all-time record low for the affordability of new homes in the U.S. Mortgage payment on the median new home sold in the U.S. during December 2022 would consume 41.6% of th...