QQXT News and Press, First Trust NASDAQ-100 Ex-Tech Sector Index Fd From 02/01/23

Summary The Fed's inflation fighting credibility is really on the line this year. The peak in inflation was mid-2022, and it's fallen a lot in the last six months and likely to keep falling. The long end of the yield curve is held in check to some extent by the Fed's stubbornness at...

Summary As of 30 Jan. 2023, an analytical model developed by an analyst at the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling the probability the NBER will someday say the U.S. went into recession during 2023 is nearing 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by anothe...

Summary Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. History is exception...

Summary The most common definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in a nation’s GDP on an inflation adjusted basis (real GDP). It is common for bear markets to begin before recessions officially start as investors anticipate tougher economic...

Summary The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields are essentially unchanged since late September as investors await more information about the economy. I think it is likely t...

Summary Too many people still think that the Federal Reserve needs to continue aggressively raising rates. There's no need for aggressive hikes. Surprising the market with larger hikes would be extremely foolish and reduce the Federal Reserve's credibility. The market started ...

Summary The Fed's been tough on interest rates for some time now, and the S&P 500 and most markets haven't reacted well to the hawkish monetary stance. While the S&P 500 and most markets haven't responded well to the hawkish policy, we've seen inflation come down substantially, ...

Summary Most of the monthly short leading indicators have turned down; all but one of those which remain positive are employment-related. All of those will be updated this week, including 3 in the jobs report on Friday. Along with construction, manufacturing, and short-term unemploy...

Summary Better days are ahead for the markets in 2023, although not necessarily for the economy. The economy has not yet felt the full brunt of all of the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening measures of 2022. Interest rates are likely to rise slightly higher, remain elevated, an...

Summary The Fed to signal an end to the interest rate hiking campaign. The economy could be in a recession already for 2023 Q1. The stock market is now more overvalued than in January of 2022. Market expectations vs the Fed's guidance The FOMC is scheduled to meet for ...