QVMS News and Press, Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 QVM Multi-factor ETF From 11/16/22

Summary The resilience of the labor market means the U.S. is probably not in a true recession. Macroeconomic headwinds do, however, make a mild recession within the next 12 months more likely than not. The market volatility has been one of the contributing factors to investor ...

Summary The era of cheap money and low inflation is over. We see an opportune time for active equity managers to shine. We believe the recent correction is more than just another crank of the economic cycle. Not all earnings are created equal. We find the gap between companies...

Summary The Fed simply can't react as fast as the market does to changing realities - unfortunately, the Fed is usually "behind the curve." In any event, a 4.5% funds rate by year end is fully priced into the market and thus it should not be very impactful. What will change th...

Summary After a difficult 2022, cautious optimism may be in order. Here are our thoughts on market risks and opportunities heading into 2023. Through 2022, the market repriced for bad news — the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply chain woes, stickier headline inflation and...

Summary The 3-month/10-year Treasury curve inverted last Thursday on better-than-expected CPI news. If the 10-year note can stay below 4% until the end of 2022, we could see the stock market rally extend into Christmas. Powell can announce a pause in rate hikes at the December...

Summary Layoff announcements are starting to pile up across the US economy. Employment is a lagging indicator. The economic cycle sequence argues that layoff announcements will intensify in the coming months. Layoffs are starting to pile up across the US economy. ...

Summary The stock market does, in fact, show an upward bias in the 12-month periods following mid-term elections. Consider how all the S&P 500’s one-year returns stack up since 1952. Clearly, there’s a strong positive skew. The point here is that it’s ...

Summary With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Over a more extended 24-month period, stocks returned an average of 33.7% after a midterm election. While history certainly supports the bullish outlook, it should no...

Summary The CPI readings announced last week were not as high as many expected, and market participants treated the less bad news as good news. Market pivots tend to be infrequent, and partially reversed quickly. They can have limited long-term predictive value but can be an early...

Summary We had good news on the inflation front this week. Inflation is most likely peaking here for the time being. Helping the idea of a Federal Reserve pivot to lower rates will soon be unemployment readings. Those readings will begin to worsen, clearly showing the economic sli...