RPG News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth From 11/15/22

Summary We had good news on the inflation front this week. Inflation is most likely peaking here for the time being. Helping the idea of a Federal Reserve pivot to lower rates will soon be unemployment readings. Those readings will begin to worsen, clearly showing the economic sli...

Summary The latest result is the fifth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. In the October update, the AIER Leading Indicators Index remained at 25. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell in October following two consecutive monthly gains. ...

Summary The November Preliminary Report came in at 54.7, down 5.2 from the October Final. To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 36 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 35.2 percent below the g...

Summary The October Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4%, while the core rate (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.3%. The monthly increases - and the resulting trend rates - were less than financial markets expected. The annualized pace of growth for...

Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...

Summary Consumer spending is a short leading indicator for employment. Together, spending and employment are two important coincident indicators of imminent recession. Several of the high-frequency indicators of consumer spending and employment have deteriorated sharply since ...

Summary Market catalysts are not the same as "causes." The CPI report is a market catalyst. As long as cited support holds on the next pullback, I am looking up to 4300SPX. This was quite a week we had. With one of the largest individual day rallies seen in market hi...

Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...

Summary Given that investors are focusing on 2022-Q4, we need to point out there will be at least one more Lévy flight event before the end of 2022. If that happens during the next several weeks, that means stock prices would fall by a significant percentage. The Atlanta ...

Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...