RWM News and Press, ProShares Short Russell2000 From 01/31/23

Summary Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. History is exception...

Summary The most common definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in a nation’s GDP on an inflation adjusted basis (real GDP). It is common for bear markets to begin before recessions officially start as investors anticipate tougher economic...

Summary The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields are essentially unchanged since late September as investors await more information about the economy. I think it is likely t...

Summary While the economy continues to be relatively strong, there are several seemingly intractable problems on the horizon. Consumers are spending beyond their means and absent a sharp increase in real wages, this is likely to lead to a drop in spending once excess savings are consume...

Summary Yesterday’s weekly update on initial jobless claims suggests that the labor market will continue expanding. A pair of proprietary business-cycle indicators highlighted in the weekly updates of The US Business Cycle Research Report also show a modest contraction in progres...

Summary The one truism which holds is that share prices and investor behavior do repeat even though the context is unique. The one element we can count on is that high pessimism is reflected in stock prices and other indicators with which investors can use to gauge market lows. One ...

Summary Amid speculation that the US could be slipping into a recession, upcoming flash PMI data will be eagerly assessed to gauge the business climate in the opening month of the year. The surveys from S&P Global have been sending especially weak signals for output and demand growt...

Summary DOG has a simple mission: make money when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declines in price. This ETF is one of several that essentially short major stock indexes. Importantly, as with the others focus on, DOG does not use leverage to achieve its objective. The DJIA ...

Summary Inflation is moving down. Fed actually has a more preferred measure of core inflation, which is core Personal Consumption Expenditures. The Fed is saying that a shallow recession basically is on the horizon. In our latest "Talking Markets" podcast, we meet with r...

Summary Recession forecasts are flying left and right lately, but the main pushback is the labor market. Notably, in the last three recessions, the year-over-year change in temp workers turned negative well ahead of the broad measure of private payrolls. Although new filings for une...