RWM News and Press, ProShares Short Russell2000 From 02/07/23

Summary Over the past couple of months, we have seen a clear downtrend emerge in the coincident measure of economic growth, suggesting we are on the path to recession. Inflation is also clearly rolling over. However, this is not the case within the labour market nor the services sector,...

Summary In examining the terms growth and value, I now recognize that the two labels should not be given to stocks, but to periods of time when a company is experiencing growth or value. For those of us emotionally connected with stock market prices, there is a tendency to label a ...

Summary The transmission mechanism for higher rates to work on the economy would be through borrowing and lending. A reacceleration in NGDP could just mean an acceleration in real growth. Small caps have outperformed large caps since mid-March 2020 but the ride has been bumpier than...

Summary The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve, suggested an impending recession. In 2020, those signals became a reality. As in 2019...

Summary The 2021-2022 episode turned out to be very different from the economic turmoil that bedeviled the U.S. economy from the 1960s into the early 1980s. Changes in relative prices can be either the result of changes in the average price level, or the cause of such changes. The o...

Summary A big contributing factor to the surge in inflation was the spike in consumer spending. Healthy GDP growth, generationally low unemployment, and relatively stable earnings all point to a stable economy. While the future always remains unclear, nobody knows for certain whethe...

Summary The massive fiscal expansion during COVID and the Fed’s accommodation of that spending via QE is what caused the spike in prices over the last 18 months. Spending fell back and has essentially been trending sideways since. Credit spreads are still below average and in...

Summary The Fed's inflation fighting credibility is really on the line this year. The peak in inflation was mid-2022, and it's fallen a lot in the last six months and likely to keep falling. The long end of the yield curve is held in check to some extent by the Fed's stubbornness at...

Summary As of 30 Jan. 2023, an analytical model developed by an analyst at the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling the probability the NBER will someday say the U.S. went into recession during 2023 is nearing 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by anothe...

Summary Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. History is exception...